The Jaguars have by far the best odds to win the AFC South in 2023 after they ended their playoff drought last season with a division title.
Jacksonville found its answer at quarterback in the 2021 draft in Trevor Lawrence while the Titans, Colts and Texans all drafted rookie signal-callers with first- or second-round picks in April’s draft. The last two division winners before the Jaguars — the Titans in 2020 and 2021 and the Texans in 2018 and 2019 — both repeated and it appears they are poised to do the same.
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Coach Doug Pederson got the most out of Lawrence last year and helped lead the same team that picked No. 1 two years in a row to a playoff appearance and upset win in the wild-card round. Jacksonville, which went from last in scoring to 10th and made massive strides on defense, won its final five games to clinch the division for the first time since 2016. Tight end Evan Engram was franchise tagged and receiver Calvin Ridley was reinstated but right tackle Jawaan Taylor left in free agency and right tackle Cam Robinson is facing a multi-game suspension. In response, the team took tackle Anton Harrison in the first round. Defensive end Arden Key also signed with a division rival, though the front office retained defensive tackle Roy Robertson-Harris. Along with the Chiefs and 49ers, the Jaguars are one of three odds-on favorites to win their division — the last time they went back-to-back was 1998-99.
Jaguars 2022 Record: 9–8
Jaguars 2023 Projected Win Total: 10.5
Jaguars Home Opponents: Chiefs, 49ers, Bengals, Ravens, Panthers, Falcons, Titans, Colts, Texans
Jaguars Away Opponents: Steelers, Bills, Browns, Saints, Buccaneers, Titans, Colts, Texans
Tennessee Titans Odds to Win AFC South: +360
Following a 7–3 start, the Titans lost out and missed the postseason for the first time since 2018. It’s beginning to look like the end of an era in Nashville. With new general manager Ran Carthon in charge, the team drafted tackle Peter Skoronski in the first round, quarterback Will Levis in the second and running back Tyjae Spears in the third. These picks seem like clear succession plans for longtime team staples: tackle Taylor Lewan was released in February and quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Derrick Henry are both entering the final years of their contracts. It’s far from a teardown in Tennessee, though. The team inked defensive lineman Jeffrey Simmons to a massive extension and made shrewd signings, like Key, guard Daniel Bruskill and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting. Even in a transitional year, this team will still be competitive under coach Mike Vrabel.
Titans 2022 Record: 7–10
Titans 2023 Projected Win Total: 7.5
Titans Home Opponents: Ravens, Bengals, Chargers, Seahawks, Panthers, Falcons, Texans, Colts, Jaguars
Titans Away Opponents: Buccaneers, Dolphins, Saints, Steelers, Browns, Texans, Colts, Jaguars
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The Colts finally ripped the band-aid off. After years of trotting out veteran stopgap quarterbacks, the franchise selected Anthony Richardson with the fourth overall pick. The team also added receiver Josh Downs in the draft as well as cornerback Julius Brents. Between Richardson and coach Shane Steichen, it’s a new start in Indianapolis. This offseason saw a handful of high-profile departures on defense: cornerback Stephon Gilmore was traded away, linebacker Bobby Okereke signed elsewhere and defensive end Yannick Ngakoue remains a free agent. Running back Jonathan Taylor and linebacker Shaquille Leonard both missed significant time last season but even with both back, the Colts don’t yet profile as a playoff team regardless of whether it’s Richardson or Gardner Minshew under center Week 1.
Colts 2022 Record: 4–12–1
Colts 2023 Projected Win Total: 6.5
Colts Home Opponents: Browns, Steelers, Saints, Buccaneers, Raiders, Rams, Texans, Titans, Jaguars
Colts Away Opponents: Falcons, Ravens, Panthers, Patriots, Bengals, Texans, Titans, Jaguars
Houston Texans Odds to Win AFC South: +800
They may have paid a premium to do so, but the Texans left the draft with foundational players on both sides of the ball. They took quarterback C.J. Stroud second and traded up to No. 3 to select edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. It’s a good start for a team that has just seven total wins over the last two seasons. Houston had a busy offseason and perhaps its most notable move was hiring coach DeMeco Ryans to lead the rebuild. Tight end Dalton Schultz, running back Devin Singletary and safety Jimmie Ward, who played for Ryans in San Francisco, were all added in free agency. Guard Shaq Mason was acquired via trade while Brandin Cooks, the team’s top receiver three years running, was traded away in exchange for draft capital. The Texans made major improvements yet still have one of the worst rosters in the NFL — and now they owe the Cardinals their 2024 first-round pick, which could end up being a top-five selection.
Texans 2022 Record: 3–13–1
Texans 2023 Projected Win Total: 5.5
Texans Home Opponents: Ravens, Falcons, Bengals, Panthers, Chiefs, 49ers, Titans, Colts, Texans
Texans Away Opponents: Browns, Saints, Buccaneers, Steelers, Bills, Titans, Colts, Texans
